The Delta Variant Will Drive A Steep Rise In U.S. COVID Deaths, A New Model Shows

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AURORA, CO - JULY 15 : Nurse Carolyn Golas, center, and frontline workers of the Medical Center of Aurora gather in front of the hospital for COVID-19 memorial at Aurora, Colorado on Thursday, July 15, 2021. The hospital dedicated a plaque at a tree to commemorate the lives lost to COVID-19. The hospital workers treated and cared for more than 1,600 COVID patients since March 1, 2020. (Photo by Hyoung Chang/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

The current COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — fueled by the highly contagious delta variant — will steadily accelerate through the summer and fall, peaking in mid-October, with daily deaths more than triple what they are now.

That’s according to new projections released Wednesday from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of researchers working in consultation with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help the agency track the course of the pandemic.

It’s a deflating prospect for parents looking ahead to the coming school year, employers planning to get people back to the workplace and everyone hoping that the days of big national surges were over.

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“What’s going on in the country with the virus is matching our most pessimistic scenarios,” says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina who helps run the modeling hub. “We might be seeing synergistic effects of people becoming less cautious in addition to the impacts of the delta variant.

“I think it’s a big call for caution,” he adds.

The group’s latest projections combine 10 mathematical models from various academic teams to create an “ensemble” projection. It offers four scenarios for its projections — varying based on what percent of the population gets vaccinated and how quickly the delta variant spreads.

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